Fact check: will public debt fall below 80% of GDP by 2029?
The Government says debt will fall from 87.8% to below 80% of GDP by June 2029. The ratio can fall while the debt keeps rising in rupees, and the same promise was made a year earlier for 2028.
In short
What was said: public-sector debt will fall from 87.8% of GDP to below 80% by June 2029.
In rupees, debt keeps rising: from about Rs 682bn to Rs 782bn by 2028-29 in the Budget's own projections. The ratio falls only because the economy is expected to grow faster.
The goalposts moved: the 2025-26 Budget promised 79.7% by 2027-28. One year later, the target is a year later.
A statistical help: Statistics Mauritius rebased the national accounts to 2023, revising GDP upwards. That lowers the ratio without reducing the debt.
Verdict: needs context. Achievable if growth, revenue and the deficit path hold, but it has already slipped once.
The claim
In the 2026-27 Budget Speech, the Government committed to bringing public-sector debt below 80% of GDP by June 2029, from 87.8%.
What the numbers show
The Budget's own projections show public-sector debt rising every year in rupees: about Rs 682bn in 2025-26, Rs 721bn in 2026-27, Rs 751bn in 2027-28 and Rs 782bn in 2028-29. The ratio to GDP falls because nominal GDP (real growth plus inflation) is expected to grow faster than the debt. That works only if the economy grows as forecast and deficits keep shrinking.
One year earlier, the 2025-26 Budget had projected public-sector debt at 88.3% for 2025-26 and 79.7% for 2027-28. The 2025-26 outcome, 87.8%, was slightly better than planned, but the path to 80% has been pushed back by a year.
Why the ratio is not the whole story
The ratio can also fall for statistical reasons. Statistics Mauritius rebased the national accounts to 2023, which raised the measured size of the economy; the same debt is now a smaller share of a bigger GDP. And interest payments, Rs 30bn in 2026-27, depend on the amount of debt in rupees and on interest rates, not on the ratio.
The verdict
Needs context. The target is possible, and the 2025-26 debt ratio came in slightly better than planned. But it relies on optimistic growth (3.5% vs 2.8% forecast by the Bank of Mauritius) and on deficits falling as planned, which did not happen last year. Debt in rupees will keep rising throughout.